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Irrationality or Efficiency of Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts? Implications from the Anchoring Bias Test

Dieter Hess and Sebastian Orbe.

in Review of Finance

November 2013; p ublished online January 2013 .

Journal Article. Subjects: General Aggregative Models; Financial Forecasting and Simulation; Economics; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles. 10869 words.

Recent findings indicate that macroeconomic survey forecasts are anchoring biased and therefore are inefficient. However, despite highly significant test coefficients, a bias adjustment...

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