Journal Article

A model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of Barents Sea capelin, <i>Mallotus villosus</i> (Müller)

Sigurd Tjelmeland

in ICES Journal of Marine Science

Published on behalf of ICES/CIEM

Volume 59, issue 5, pages 1072-1080
Published in print January 2002 | ISSN: 1054-3139
Published online January 2002 | e-ISSN: 1095-9289 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.2002.1258
A model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Müller)

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Management of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Müller), is based on the precautionary approach, and probabilistic short-term predictions are used directly as a tool. One important part of the overall uncertainty is the uncertainty in the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate made in September. Harvest-control rules are based on historical time-series for the spawning stock, the uncertainty around which therefore has a direct bearing on management of the species. Accordingly, one must quantify the uncertainty, not only of the September estimate the latest year, but also for the whole time-series. In this paper, a model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate is developed. The uncertainty in the mean integrator value by standard one-by-two-degree rectangles is evaluated with a model for the distribution of the basic five-mile integrator values parameterized with data from many historical surveys. The uncertainty from the biological samples is quantified on the basis of the multinomial distribution. A large number of replicates of the historical time-series of September estimates are produced and stored on file for later use.

Keywords: Barents Sea; capelin; parametric bootstrap; stock assessment

Journal Article.  0 words. 

Subjects: Environmental Science ; Marine and Estuarine Biology

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