Journal Article

Modelling stochastic fish stock dynamics using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

P. Lewy and A. Nielsen

in ICES Journal of Marine Science

Published on behalf of ICES/CIEM

Volume 60, issue 4, pages 743-752
Published in print January 2003 | ISSN: 1054-3139
Published online January 2003 | e-ISSN: 1095-9289 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1054-3139(03)00080-8
Modelling stochastic fish stock dynamics using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

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A new age-structured stock dynamics approach including stochastic survival and recruitment processes is developed and implemented. The model is able to analyse detailed sources of information used in standard age-based fish stock assessment such as catch-at-age and effort data from commercial fleets and research surveys. The stock numbers are treated as unobserved variables subject to process errors while the catches are observed variables subject to both sampling and process errors. Results obtained for North Sea plaice using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods indicate that the process error by far accounts for most of the variation compared to sampling error. Comparison with results from a simpler separable model indicates that the new model provides more precise estimates with fewer parameters.

Keywords: stochastic survival; stock dynamics; process error; sampling error; age-structured assessment; Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation; North Sea plaice

Journal Article.  5906 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Environmental Science ; Marine and Estuarine Biology

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