Journal Article

Application of a sequential regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem

Sergei Rodionov and James E. Overland

in ICES Journal of Marine Science

Published on behalf of ICES/CIEM

Volume 62, issue 3, pages 328-332
Published in print January 2005 | ISSN: 1054-3139
Published online January 2005 | e-ISSN: 1095-9289 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.01.013
Application of a sequential regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem

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A common problem of existing methods for regime shift detection is their poor performance at the ends of time-series. Consequently, shifts in environmental and biological indices are usually detected long after their actual appearance. A recently introduced method based on sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts (STARS) treats all incoming data in real time, signals the possibility of a regime shift as soon as possible, then monitors how perception of the magnitude of the shift changes over time. Results of a STARS application to the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem show how the 1989 and 1998 regime shifts manifest themselves in biotic and abiotic indices in comparison with the 1977 shift.

Keywords: Bering Sea; ecosystem; regime shift; sequential analysis; t-test

Journal Article.  2938 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Environmental Science ; Marine and Estuarine Biology

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