Journal Article

Managing fish stocks under climate uncertainty

Brian J. Rothschild, Changsheng Chen and R. Greg Lough

in ICES Journal of Marine Science

Published on behalf of ICES/CIEM

Volume 62, issue 7, pages 1531-1541
Published in print January 2005 | ISSN: 1054-3139
Published online January 2005 | e-ISSN: 1095-9289 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.06.011
Managing fish stocks under climate uncertainty

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The quantitative evaluation of the management of fish stocks under uncertainty requires a formal framework. Decision theory provides that framework. Application of decision theory to fishery management requires information about both the fish stock and the state of the environment. Using Georges Bank haddock as a case study, it is possible to determine the probability of good or poor recruitment using past data and a constant environment. Understanding the state of the environment is more difficult, however, because fixed levels of recruitment, in particular, are associated with different population characteristics, which drastically reduce the sample size for any particular recruitment–environment scenario. Decision theory challenges us to improve our capability of predicting the state of nature, and it appears that this can be accomplished best by reducing the length of the causal chain, a goal now made feasible by the availability of high-resolution, high-frequency ocean models.

Keywords: decision theory; haddock; recruitment

Journal Article.  6020 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Environmental Science ; Marine and Estuarine Biology

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