Journal Article

Viral Load as a Predictor of Outcome in Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever

Mustafa Aydin Çevik, Ayşe Erbay, Hürrem Bodur, Selim Sirri Eren, Esragül Akinci, Kenan Şener, Pinar Öngürü and Ayhan Kubar

in Clinical Infectious Diseases

Published on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America

Volume 45, issue 7, pages e96-e100
Published in print October 2007 | ISSN: 1058-4838
Published online October 2007 | e-ISSN: 1537-6591 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/521244
Viral Load as a Predictor of Outcome in Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever

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Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a potentially fatal disease affecting multiple organ systems. To determine the association between viral load and severity of CCHF infection, quantitative measurement of CCHF virus was performed using 1-step reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for 36 patients with CCHF infection. Viral loads ranged from 1.1 × 103 copies/mL to ⩾ 9.9 × 109 copies/mL. Nine (25%) of 36 patients died. In 8 of the 9 patients with fatal outcomes, viral loads were detected that were ⩾1 × 109 copies/mL, whereas in 25 of the 26 patients with nonfatal outcomes, viral loads were detected that were <1 × 109 copies/mL (P < .001). A viral load ⩾1 × 109 RNA copies/mL can be considered to predict a fatal outcome with a positive predictive value of 80%, with 88.9% sensitivity and 92.6% specificity. We suggest that viral load is a measure of the severity of CCHF.

Journal Article.  2407 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Infectious Diseases ; Immunology ; Public Health and Epidemiology ; Microbiology

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