Chapter

Putting Epistemology into Practice: Positive Advice

Michael A Bishop and J. D. Trout

in Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment

Published in print January 2005 | ISBN: 9780195162295
Published online July 2005 | e-ISBN: 9780199835539 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/0195162293.003.0010
 Putting Epistemology into Practice: Positive Advice

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This chapter attempts to consolidate some of the lessons of Ameliorative Psychology with some handy heuristics and illustrative injunctions. It explores the empirical research that shows how to enhance the accuracy of diagnostic reasoning, reduce overconfidence, avoid the regression fallacy, improve policy assessments, and restrain the unbridled story-telling surrounding rare or unusual events. For problems tractable to voluntary reasoning strategies, the simple strategies recommended in the chapter can improve reasoning at low cost and high fidelity.

Keywords: Ameliorative Psychology; human reasoning; diagnostic reasoning; overconfidence; regression fallacy

Chapter.  6652 words. 

Subjects: Metaphysics

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