The Failures of Forecasting

John Kay

in The Business of Economics

Published in print October 1996 | ISBN: 9780198292227
Published online November 2003 | e-ISBN: 9780191596520 | DOI:
 The Failures of Forecasting

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Using data on previous forecasts, this widely influential 1995 FT article criticizes the reliability and usefulness of economic forecasts. Contrary to the widespread belief that economists always disagree, it shows that economic forecasts typically fall into quite a narrow range, but that the range rarely includes the outcome.

Keywords: economic forecasts; growth; inflation; interest rates; macroeconomic models; wise men

Chapter.  1807 words. 

Subjects: Microeconomics

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