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Records the fundamental event of the probability revolution in econometrics. Focuses upon how probability theory was brought into econometrics in relation to the main econometric modelling issues, such as estimation, identification, and testing, and shows that this laid the basis for the formalization of those issues, which is reported in later chapters. The first section sketches the eve of the probability revolution. An introduction to probability methods follows in the second section, and the third section is dedicated to the ‘Haavelmo revolution’: the thorough adoption of probability theory in econometrics. The following section turns to alternative approaches to the adoption of probability theory, and the final section discusses the after‐effect and especially the incompleteness of the probability revolution.

*Keywords: *
adoption of probability theory;
econometric modelling;
econometrics;
Haavelmo revolution;
history;
probability revolution;
probability theory

*Chapter.*
*10277 words.*

*Subjects: *
History of Economic Thought

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