Chapter

Probability

Richard Swinburne

in Epistemic Justification

Published in print June 2001 | ISBN: 9780199243792
Published online November 2003 | e-ISBN: 9780191598524 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/0199243794.003.0004
 Probability

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Physical probability is a measure of the extent to which an event is predetermined by its causes. Statistical probability is a measure of the proportion of events of some kind in a population; I distinguish the proportion in an actual population from the proportion in a hypothetical population (a population that would be generated by a certain process). Inductive probability is a measure of the extent to which one proposition makes another one likely to be true; I distinguish the true measure of this— logical probability, from the best judgement of this that could be produced by a person using correct criteria but with limited abilities —epistemic probability, and from the measure that uses a person's own criteria—subjective probability. Whether or not a belief is rendered probable by its grounds (and so has adequate grounds) varies with the kind of probability being used.

Keywords: adequate grounds; belief; epistemic probability; inductive probability; Keynes; logical probability; physical probability; probability; statistical probability; subjective probability

Chapter.  9139 words. 

Subjects: Metaphysics

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