Chapter

Explaining change in early career outcomes: labour market conditions, educational expansion, and youth cohort sizes

Markus Gangl

in Transitions from Education to Work in Europe

Published in print November 2003 | ISBN: 9780199252473
Published online January 2005 | e-ISBN: 9780191601958 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/0199252475.003.0009
 Explaining change in early career outcomes: labour market conditions, educational expansion, and youth cohort sizes

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Uses panel data modelling to assess the impact of structural change on market entrants' risk of unemployment and patterns of occupational allocation in the late 1980s and throughout the 1990s. Youth unemployment rates are shown to have closely followed aggregate economic conditions with only slight impact from demographic factors. Changing occupational outcomes are more dependent on the relative evolution of educational expansion and occupational upgrading, however. In particular, labour market problems of low qualified leavers have empirically resulted from both the economic recession of the early 1990s and continued occupational upgrading in the labour market.

Keywords: demographic change; economic cycle; educational expansion; labour market entry; occupations; school-to-work transitions; structural change; youth unemployment

Chapter.  9355 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Politics

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