Asian crises: Theory, evidence, warning Signals<sup>1</sup>

Jerome L. Stein

in Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance, and Debt Crises

Published in print April 2006 | ISBN: 9780199280575
Published online May 2006 | e-ISBN: 9780191603501 | DOI:
 							Asian crises: Theory, evidence, warning Signals1

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The Asian financial crises were unexpected by the market and many countries in the region experienced it at about the same time. Drawing upon the theoretical analyses in chapters 2-4, an operational theory is provided to answer the following questions for the Asian countries: Was a currency crisis produced by an overvalued real exchange rate? Was a debt crisis produced by an “excessive/unsustainable” external debt? What was the interaction between the two? The models imply a set of objective, theoretically-based warning signals and empirical analysis allows the assessment of which countries were or were not highly vulnerable to shocks.

Keywords: Asian crises; overvalued exchange rate; excessive debt; currency crises; debt crises; NATREX; stochastic optimal control; warning signals

Chapter.  10273 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Financial Markets

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