Probability event forecasting with the UK model

Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee, M. Hashem Pesaran and Yongcheol Shin

in Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling

Published in print August 2006 | ISBN: 9780199296859
Published online September 2006 | e-ISBN: 9780191603853 | DOI:
 Probability event forecasting with the UK model

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This chapter is concerned with forecasting and prediction based on the UK model. It elaborates on the notion of probability forecasting, which provides a useful means of conveying the uncertainties surrounding forecasts obtained from the model. It illustrates the usefulness of probability forecasts with reference to the Bank of England’s inflation targets and the UK’s growth prospects.

Keywords: decision-making; probability forecasts; forecast evaluation; Bank of England; inflation targets

Chapter.  9504 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Econometrics and Mathematical Economics

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