Chapter

Performance of Quarterly Econometric Models of the United States: A New Round of Model Comparisons

F. Gerard Adams and Lawrence R. Klein

in Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Published in print June 1991 | ISBN: 9780195057720
Published online October 2011 | e-ISBN: 9780199854967 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0002
Performance of Quarterly Econometric Models of the United States: A New Round of Model Comparisons

More Like This

Show all results sharing this subject:

  • Econometrics and Mathematical Economics

GO

Show Summary Details

Preview

This chapter focuses on the response of the various econometric models to a number of alternatively specified external shocks. Altogether, 11 model groups supplied simulation results for the model comparisons. These groups represent a cross section of the currently active model operators and forecasters. They run from the now traditional Keynesian to the monetarist and the rational expectations approaches. The participating model groups and the special characteristics of their models are listed in the chapter. Early in the meetings of the model comparison seminar, the philosophy of model comparisons was a topic of some extensive discussion. The approach was to compare alternative “disturbed” model solutions to a base solution. Each model operator was instructed to prepare a so-called “tracking solution” that would approximately reproduce history over the period 1975 to 1984.

Keywords: external shocks; econometric models; model comparisons; model operators; disturbed model; tracking solution; economic forecasting

Chapter.  16966 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Econometrics and Mathematical Economics

Full text: subscription required

How to subscribe Recommend to my Librarian

Buy this work at Oxford University Press »

Users without a subscription are not able to see the full content. Please, subscribe or login to access all content.