Model Comparisons and Appraisals<sup>1</sup>

Robert J. Shiller

in Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Published in print June 1991 | ISBN: 9780195057720
Published online October 2011 | e-ISBN: 9780199854967 | DOI:
Model Comparisons and Appraisals1

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The Model Comparison Seminar has produced some striking findings. The differences in the properties of the major macroeconometric models are much bigger than one might have expected given their emphasized theoretical foundations, or given the similarity of the published economic forecasts. F. Gerard Adams and Lawrence Klein conclude that there is “considerable, one might even say astonishing,” variation in the behavior of models “largely intended for the same purposes.” Roger Brinner and Alert Hirsch refer to these sharp differences as “disturbing, particularly insofar as models share a common theoretical basis.” Stephen McNees shows that the models themselves agree much less on forecasts than do the forecasters: the forecasts of the exogenous policy variables and the ad hoc adjustments serve to make the different models' forecasts much more similar than they would be if the models alone accounted for the differences in forecasts.

Keywords: Model Comparison; macroeconometric models; economic forecasts; Roger Brinner; Alert Hirsch; Stephen McNees

Chapter.  2567 words. 

Subjects: Econometrics and Mathematical Economics

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