Chapter

Estimating Probabilities

Diana B. Petitti

in Meta-Analysis, Decision Analysis, and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Second edition

Published in print November 1999 | ISBN: 9780195133646
Published online September 2009 | e-ISBN: 9780199863761 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195133646.003.10

Series: Monographs in Epidemiology and Biostatistics

Estimating Probabilities

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This chapter describes how to select probability estimates for a decision analysis and how to justify the choice of probabilities. Because decision analytic models are often the basis for cost-effectiveness analysis, the information on estimation of probabilities information is directly relevant to cost-effectiveness analysis. The chapter explains why probability estimation should be based on systematic review. It briefly discusses Monte Carlo simulation and the confidence profile, a Baysian method, as methods for estimating uncertainty in the expected outcome of a decision analysis.

Keywords: decision analysis; cost-effectiveness analysis; probability estimation; Monte Carlo simulation; confidence profile; Bayesian

Chapter.  4080 words. 

Subjects: Public Health and Epidemiology

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