The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations

Christopher D. Carroll

in The Economy as an Evolving Complex System, III

Published in print October 2005 | ISBN: 9780195162592
Published online October 2011 | e-ISBN: 9780199850495 | DOI:

Series: Santa Fe Institute Studies on the Sciences of Complexity

The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations

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This chapter considers a model in which individual actors learn about properties of the macroeconomic via the diffusion of forecasts by a small set of agents, interpreted as professional forecasters. This type of expectational structure is shown to replicate observed patterns of unemployment and inflation expectations as measured in survey data.

Keywords: macroeconomic; forecasts; expectational structure; unemployment; inflation

Chapter.  10686 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Economic Systems

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