Chapter

The <i>naïve</i> intuitive statistician:

Patrik Hansson, Peter Juslin and Anders Winman

in The Probabilistic Mind:

Published in print March 2008 | ISBN: 9780199216093
Published online March 2012 | e-ISBN: 9780191695971 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199216093.003.0011
The naïve intuitive statistician:

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The authors assume that, roughly, the cognitive system is able to provide a good analysis of the data which it experiences — i.e. cognition can be seen as intuitive statistics (Gigerenzer & Murray, 1987). However, they suggest, the crucial blind-spot in this process is an inability to correct for sampling bias — so that, to the degree that the world is not sampled randomly, the cognitive system is liable to come to misleading conclusions. The mind should be viewed as a naïve intuitive statistician. The authors provide a compelling illustration of their approach, considering the conditions in which people do, and do not, exhibit overconfidence, in relation to sampling and the process of making confidence judgements.

Keywords: cognitive system; intuitive statistics; sampling bias; overconfidence; confidence judgements; sampling

Chapter.  9592 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Cognitive Psychology

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