Afterword: Looking Ahead on Technology Trends, Industry Organization, and Government IT

This afterword looks at some of the most feasible ‘next-wave’ technology-driven changes, then at how the world market for government IT may change in the next two decades, and finally at alternative scenarios of how governments may handle the development of their IT systems. The study period has coincided with a massive increase in interest in government IT, as the spread of central government e-government initiatives across the world took on some aspects of the earlier dot.com boom in e-commerce. A key theme for the coming decades in all seven case study countries will be identity...

This afterword looks at some of the most feasible ‘next-wave’ technology-driven changes, then at how the world market for government IT may change in the next two decades, and finally at alternative scenarios of how governments may handle the development of their IT systems. The study period has coincided with a massive increase in interest in government IT, as the spread of central government e-government initiatives across the world took on some aspects of the earlier dot.com boom in e-commerce. A key theme for the coming decades in all seven case study countries will be identity management. In taxation, social security, and immigration, technological trends are requiring ever greater innovation in terms of reliable identification and authentication techniques. Five feasible technology-driven changes with particular relevance for government over the coming decades are identified: web-based utility computing for some agencies; a shared-services mixed economy; spread of zero trend technologies; semantic Web; and graphical interface to governmental services.