An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity*

David F. Hendry and Carlos Santos

in Volatility and Time Series Econometrics

Published in print March 2010 | ISBN: 9780199549498
Published online May 2010 | e-ISBN: 9780191720567 | DOI:

Series: Advanced Texts in Econometrics

 An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity*

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This chapter proposes a test for ‘super exogeneity’, a concept originally developed by Rob, David, and Jean-Francois Richard. The structure of the chapter is as follows. Section 2 reconsiders which shifts in vector autoregressions (VARs) are relatively detectable, and derives the implications for testing for breaks in conditional representations. Section 3 considers super exogeneity in a regression context in order to elucidate its testable hypotheses, and discusses how super exogeneity can fail. Section 4 describes the impulse-saturation tests in Hendry et al. (2008) and Johansen and Nielsen (2009), and considers how to extend these to test super exogeneity. Section 5 provides analytic and Monte Carlo evidence on the null rejection frequencies of that procedure. Section 6 considers the power of the first stage to determine location shifts in marginal processes. Section 7 analyzes a failure of weak exogeneity under a nonconstant marginal process. Section 8 notes a co-breaking saturation-based test which builds on Krolzig and Toro (2002) and Hendry and Massmann (2007). Section 9 investigates the powers of the proposed automatic test in Monte Carlo experiments for a bivariate data generation process based on Section 7. Section 10 tests super exogeneity in the much-studied example of UK money demand; and Section 11 concludes.

Keywords: super exogeneity; vector autoregressions; regression; Monte Carlo simulation; money demand

Chapter.  15062 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Econometrics and Mathematical Economics

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