Transitory vs. Permanent Demographic Shocks: From Ageing to Longevity

This chapter deals with demographic facts. Ageing trends are the result of two different and contrasted phenomena: the change from a high to a low fertility regime and the increase in longevity. The baby boom and subsequent fertility bust was a massive but transitory shock. In contrast, the smooth and steady increase in longevity does look like a permanent shock. The critical condition for these potential longevity gains to materialise in longer working lives is a dynamic equilibrium between the increase in life expectancy and the number of years in good health (the so-called ‘healthy ageing’...

This chapter deals with demographic facts. Ageing trends are the result of two different and contrasted phenomena: the change from a high to a low fertility regime and the increase in longevity. The baby boom and subsequent fertility bust was a massive but transitory shock. In contrast, the smooth and steady increase in longevity does look like a permanent shock. The critical condition for these potential longevity gains to materialise in longer working lives is a dynamic equilibrium between the increase in life expectancy and the number of years in good health (the so-called ‘healthy ageing’ regime).