Chapter

 Supposing, Updating, and Reflection

Wolfgang Spohn

in The Laws of Belief

Published in print March 2012 | ISBN: 9780199697502
Published online September 2012 | e-ISBN: 9780191739323 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199697502.003.0009
 Supposing, Updating, and Reflection

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Like conditional probability, conditional belief is not easy to understand. The chapter argues that conditional belief is best interpreted as suppositional belief. This raises the question of how supposition relates to updating and conditionalization as presented in chapter 5. The question leads to a ranking-theoretic treatment of auto-epistemology. Hence, the reflection principle is discussed and then shown to be equivalent to an auto-epistemological conditionalization rule that subsumes ordinary conditionalization. In this perspective, updating turns out to be an auto-epistemic version of supposing.

Keywords: conditional belief; supposition; updating; auto-epistemology; reflection principle

Chapter.  7201 words. 

Subjects: Metaphysics

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