Who Gets What in Peace Agreements?

David E Cunningham

in The Slippery Slope to Genocide

Published in print January 2012 | ISBN: 9780199791743
Published online January 2012 | e-ISBN: 9780199919222 | DOI:
Who Gets What in Peace Agreements?

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What determines the content of peace agreements in civil war? The theoretical literature on conflict bargaining leads to direct implications, namely, that groups with a higher likelihood of winning the conflict and lower costs of fighting should get more of what they want in peace agreements. I argue, however, that the presence of mediation can also have a profound effect on the concessions that combatants receive. A statistical analysis of the concessions in all peace agreements since 1989 reveals that rebels get substantially greater concessions when there is a mediator who is biased in their favor, and that measures of relative strength and the costliness of fighting are not associated with the distribution of benefits. The analysis also shows that rebel groups with an ethnic identity get greater concessions than those without it.

Keywords: civil war; negotiations; peace agreements; rebel groups; mediation

Chapter.  11040 words. 

Subjects: Social Psychology

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