Chapter

Modelling future climate

Mark Maslin

in Climate Change

Third edition

Published in print October 2014 | ISBN: 9780198719045
Published online October 2014 | e-ISBN: 9780191788376 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/actrade/9780198719045.003.0004

Series: Very Short Introductions

Modelling future climate

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‘Modelling future climate’ is about understanding the fundamental physical processes of the climate system. Modelling future climate considers the carbon cycle, cooling effects, carbon emissions, and the complex three-dimensional general circulation models that examine and further our understanding of the global climate system and which are used to predict future global climate. Over 40 climate models were used in developing the IPCC projections for the 2013 report. The three main realistic carbon emissions pathways suggest the global mean surface temperature could rise by between 2.8°C and 5.4°C by 2100 and predict an increase in global mean sea level of between 52 cm and 98 cm in this timeframe.

Keywords: carbon cycle; carbon dioxide; climate; climate sensitivity; El Niño; general circulation; global; global warming; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; temperature

Chapter.  5017 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Climate Change ; Environmental Science ; Conservation of the Environment (Environmental Science) ; Earth Sciences and Geography

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