Journal Article

Different Epidemic Curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Reveal Similar Impacts of Control Measures

Jacco Wallinga and Peter Teunis

in American Journal of Epidemiology

Published on behalf of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Volume 160, issue 6, pages 509-516
Published in print September 2004 | ISSN: 0002-9262
Published online September 2004 | e-ISSN: 1476-6256 | DOI:
Different Epidemic Curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Reveal  Similar Impacts of Control Measures

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Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been the first severe contagious disease to emerge in the 21st century. The available epidemic curves for SARS show marked differences between the affected regions with respect to the total number of cases and epidemic duration, even for those regions in which outbreaks started almost simultaneously and similar control measures were implemented at the same time. The authors developed a likelihood-based estimation procedure that infers the temporal pattern of effective reproduction numbers from an observed epidemic curve. Precise estimates for the effective reproduction numbers were obtained by applying this estimation procedure to available data for SARS outbreaks that occurred in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and Canada in 2003. The effective reproduction numbers revealed that epidemics in the various affected regions were characterized by markedly similar disease transmission potentials and similar levels of effectiveness of control measures. In controlling SARS outbreaks, timely alerts have been essential: Delaying the institution of control measures by 1 week would have nearly tripled the epidemic size and would have increased the expected epidemic duration by 4 weeks.

Keywords: disease outbreaks; estimation; infection; models, statistical; SARS virus; severe acute respiratory syndrome; statistics; Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Journal Article.  4836 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Public Health and Epidemiology

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