Journal Article

Large-Scale Comparative Analysis of Pertussis Population Dynamics: Periodicity, Synchrony, and Impact of Vaccination

Hélène Broutin, Jean-François Guégan, Eric Elguero, François Simondon and Bernard Cazelles

in American Journal of Epidemiology

Published on behalf of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Volume 161, issue 12, pages 1159-1167
Published in print June 2005 | ISSN: 0002-9262
Published online June 2005 | e-ISSN: 1476-6256 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwi141
Large-Scale Comparative Analysis of Pertussis Population Dynamics: Periodicity, Synchrony, and Impact of Vaccination

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Pertussis is a worldwide infectious disease which persists despite massive vaccination campaigns that have gone on for several decades. To obtain an overall view of pertussis dynamics and the impact of vaccination, the authors performed, using the wavelet method, a comparative analysis of pertussis time series in 12 countries to detect and quantify periodicity and synchrony between them. Results showed a clear 3- to 4-year cycle in all countries, but the main finding was that this periodicity was transient. No global pattern in the effect of vaccination on pertussis dynamics was observed, but some spatial synchrony between countries was detected. This large-scale comparative analysis of pertussis dynamics sheds light on the complexity of the multiple interactions involved in global pertussis spatial dynamic patterns. It suggests a need to perform a global survey of human infectious diseases over the long term, which would permit better assessment of the risk of disease outbreaks in the future.

Keywords: comparative analysis; periodicity; population surveillance; vaccination; wavelet methods; whooping cough

Journal Article.  4709 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Public Health and Epidemiology

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