Journal Article

A Dynamic Model of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks: Learning from the Past to Help Inform the Future

Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, Mark A. Pallansch, Olen M. Kew, Victor M. Cáceres, Roland W. Sutter and Kimberly M. Thompson

in American Journal of Epidemiology

Published on behalf of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Volume 162, issue 4, pages 358-372
Published in print August 2005 | ISSN: 0002-9262
Published online August 2005 | e-ISSN: 1476-6256 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwi206
A Dynamic Model of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks: Learning from the Past to Help Inform the Future

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Policy-makers now face important questions regarding the tradeoffs among different strategies for managing poliomyelitis risks after they succeed with polio eradication. To estimate the potential consequences of reintroductions of polioviruses and the resulting outbreaks, the authors developed a dynamic disease transmission model that can simulate many aspects of outbreaks for different posteradication conditions. In this paper, the authors identify the issues related to prospective modeling of future outbreaks using such a model, including the reality that accurate prediction of conditions and associated model inputs prior to future outbreaks remains challenging. The authors explored the model's behavior in the context of three recent outbreaks resulting from importation of poliovirus into previously polio-free countries and found that the model reproduced reported data on the incidence of cases. The authors expect that this model can provide important insights into the dynamics of future potential poliomyelitis outbreaks and in this way serve as a useful tool for risk assessment.

Keywords: disease outbreaks; disease transmission; models, statistical; poliomyelitis; poliovirus; risk assessment; vaccination; IPV, inactivated polio vaccine; NID, National Immunization Day; OPV, oral polio vaccine

Journal Article.  8695 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Public Health and Epidemiology

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