Journal Article

A Bayesian Paradox

Ruth Weintraub

in The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science

Published on behalf of British Society for the Philosophy of Science

Volume 52, issue 1, pages 51-66
Published in print March 2001 | ISSN: 0007-0882
Published online March 2001 | e-ISSN: 1464-3537 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjps/52.1.51
A Bayesian Paradox

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A seemingly plausible application of Bayesian decision-theoretic reasoning to determine one's rational degrees of belief yields a paradoxical conclusion: one ought to jettison one's intermediate credences in favour of more extreme (opinionated) ones. I discuss various attempts to solve the paradox, those involving the acceptance of the paradoxical conclusion, and those which attempt to block its derivation.

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Subjects: Philosophy of Science ; Science and Mathematics

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