Journal Article

Cliometric Metatheory III: Peircean Consensus, Verisimilitude and Asymptotic Method

Paul E. Meehl

in The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science

Published on behalf of British Society for the Philosophy of Science

Volume 55, issue 4, pages 615-643
Published in print December 2004 | ISSN: 0007-0882
Published online December 2004 | e-ISSN: 1464-3537 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjps/55.4.615
Cliometric Metatheory III: Peircean Consensus, Verisimilitude and Asymptotic Method

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Statistical procedures can be applied to episodes in the history of science in order to weight attributes to predict short-term survival of theories; an asymptotic method is used to show that short-term survival is a valid proxy for ultimate survival; and a theoretical argument is made that ultimate survival is a valid proxy for objective truth. While realists will appreciate this last step, instrumentalists do not need it to benefit from the actuarial procedures of cliometric metatheory.

Introduction

A plausible proxy for Peircean consensus

Assessing the validity of theory attributes as predictors of theory survival

3.1 Linear discriminant function

3.2 Factor analysis

3.3 Taxometric analysis

Verisimilitude index

Satisfying both instrumentalists and realists

Recapitulation

Implementation of cliometric metatheory

Journal Article.  0 words. 

Subjects: Philosophy of Science ; Science and Mathematics

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