Journal Article

Some Considerations on Conditional Chances

Paul Humphreys

in The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science

Published on behalf of British Society for the Philosophy of Science

Volume 55, issue 4, pages 667-680
Published in print December 2004 | ISSN: 0007-0882
Published online December 2004 | e-ISSN: 1464-3537 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjps/55.4.667
Some Considerations on Conditional Chances

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Four interpretations of single-case conditional propensities are described and it is shown that for each a version of what has been called ‘Humphreys' Paradox’ remains, despite the clarifying work of Gillies, McCurdy and Miller. This entails that propensities cannot be a satisfactory interpretation of standard probability theory.

Introduction

The basic issue

The formal paradox

Values of conditional propensities

Interpretations of propensities

McCurdy's response

Miller's response

Other possibilities

8.1 Temporal evolution

8.2 Renormalization

8.3 Causal influence

Propensities to generate frequencies

Conclusion

Journal Article.  0 words. 

Subjects: Philosophy of Science ; Science and Mathematics

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