Journal Article

Probability Theory and Causation: A Branching Space-Times Analysis

Thomas Müller

in The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science

Published on behalf of British Society for the Philosophy of Science

Volume 56, issue 3, pages 487-520
Published in print September 2005 | ISSN: 0007-0882
Published online August 2005 | e-ISSN: 1464-3537 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axi132
Probability Theory and Causation: A Branching Space-Times Analysis

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We provide a formally rigorous framework for integrating singular causation, as understood by Nuel Belnap's theory of causae causantes, and objective single case probabilities. The central notion is that of a causal probability space whose sample space consists of causal alternatives. Such a probability space is generally not isomorphic to a product space. We give a causally motivated statement of the Markov condition and an analysis of the concept of screening-off.

Causal dependencies and probabilities

1.1 Background: causation in branching space-times

1.2 What are probabilities defined for?

Basic transitions

2.1 Basics of basic transitions

2.2 Sets of basic transitions

Causal probability theory

3.1 Some simple cases

3.2 General causal probabilities

3.3 Application: probability of suprema of a chain

Journal Article.  14924 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Philosophy of Science ; Science and Mathematics

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