Journal Article

Timely Assessment of the Severity of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic

Gregory L. Armstrong, Lynnette Brammer and Lyn Finelli

in Clinical Infectious Diseases

Published on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America

Volume 52, issue suppl_1, pages S83-S89
Published in print January 2011 | ISSN: 1058-4838
Published online January 2011 | e-ISSN: 1537-6591 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciq013
Timely Assessment of the Severity of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic

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During the 2009 influenza pandemic, weekly mortality data were analyzed to estimate excess mortality above a seasonally adjusted baseline modeled from prior years' data. Between the 1962–1963 and 2008–2009 seasons, among persons ≥25 years old, excess mortality had been substantially higher during influenza A(H3N2)–dominant years than during A(H1N1)-dominant years. Among persons ≥15 years of age, excess mortality was higher in the 1968–1969 influenza pandemic season than during any other season. During the 2009–2010 pandemic, among all age groups <65 years old, excess mortality increased earlier than during any of the previous 47 seasons, eventually exceeding mortality in any prior non-pandemic season. In the ≥65-year-old age group, excess mortality remained relatively low, at rates typical of seasonal influenza A(H1N1) seasons. The model provided a timely assessment of severity during the 2009–2010 influenza pandemic, showing that, compared with prior seasons, mortality was relatively high among persons <65 years old and relatively low among those ≥65 years old.

Journal Article.  3669 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Infectious Diseases ; Immunology ; Public Health and Epidemiology ; Microbiology

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