Journal Article

Population dynamics of HTLV‐I infection: A discrete‐time mathematical epidemic model approach

Nobuoki Eshima, Minoru Tabata, Tadashige Okada and Shigeru Karukaya

in Mathematical Medicine and Biology: A Journal of the IMA

Published on behalf of Institute of Mathematics and its Applications

Volume 20, issue 1, pages 29-45
Published in print March 2003 | ISSN: 1477-8599
Published online March 2003 | e-ISSN: 1477-8602 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/imammb/20.1.29
Population dynamics of HTLV‐I infection: A discrete‐time mathematical epidemic model approach

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Human T‐cell Leukaemia Virus Type 1 (HTLV‐I) is a retrovirus that causes Adult T‐cell Leukaemia (ATL). The transmission routes of HTLV‐I are (i) from infected mothers to their newborn babies, (ii) from infected males (husbands) to females (their wives) by long‐term sexual intercourse, and (iii) from infected females (wives) to males (their husbands). Eshima et al. (2001) analysed a continuous‐time HTLV‐I model with no age structure in the population. In this paper, we consider the population dynamics of HTLV‐I infection in a discrete‐time mathematical model incorporating an age structure. The necessary and sufficient condition for the extinction of HTLV‐I is derived from the mathematical model. A simulation of the HTLV‐I infection based on the model demonstrates a rapid reduction of the HTLV‐I infection proportion in Japan.

Keywords: ATL; discrete‐time epidemic model; infection probability; HTLV‐I

Journal Article.  0 words. 

Subjects: Applied Mathematics ; Biomathematics and Statistics

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