Chapter

Predicting the development of childhood asthma

Dennis Ownby

in Landmark Papers in Allergy

Published on behalf of Oxford University Press

Published in print February 2013 | ISBN: 9780199651559
Published online April 2013 | e-ISBN: 9780191754241 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199651559.003.0080

Series: Landmark Papers

Predicting the development of childhood asthma

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Castro-Rodríguez et al. used longitudinal data from the Tucson Children’s Respiratory Study to develop two indices for the prediction of asthma. A ‘stringent’ index included frequent wheezing during the first 3 years of life and either one major risk factor (parental history of asthma or eczema) or two of three minor risk factors (eosinophilia, wheezing without colds, and allergic rhinitis). A ‘loose’ index was based on any wheezing during the first 3 years of life plus the same combination of risk factors as for the stringent index. The authors found that the stringent index had an acceptable positive predictive value and a high specificity, but low sensitivity. The loose index had a much higher sensitivity but lower specificity and positive predictive values. The negative predictive value at all ages was very high for both indices. The authors conclude that the indices provide a reasonably accurate method of predicting subsequent development of asthma in young children with wheeze, using data that can be easily collected in clinical practice.

Chapter.  1798 words. 

Subjects: Public Health and Epidemiology ; Immunology ; Respiratory Medicine and Pulmonology

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