Journal Article

Predictors of change in estimated GFR: a population-based 7-year follow-up from the Tromsø study

Jens Kronborg, Marit Solbu, Inger Njølstad, Ingrid Toft, Bjørn O. Eriksen and Trond Jenssen

in Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation

Published on behalf of European Renal Association - European Dialysis and Transplant Assoc

Volume 23, issue 9, pages 2818-2826
Published in print September 2008 | ISSN: 0931-0509
Published online April 2008 | e-ISSN: 1460-2385 | DOI:
Predictors of change in estimated GFR: a population-based 7-year follow-up from the Tromsø study

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Background. Chronic kidney disease is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality, and even mild impairment of renal function is a cardiovascular risk factor. Several studies have investigated the risk factors for the development of end-stage renal disease, but little is known about predictors of change in renal function in the general population.

Methods. The present study included 2249 men and 2192 women without signs of kidney disease at baseline who were followed for 7 years from 1994 to 1995 in the Tromsø Study. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated from the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study equation. Gender-specific multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess predictors of change in eGFR (ΔGFR).

Results. Change in eGFR, measured in ml/min/1.73 m2/year, was associated with systolic blood pressure (SBP) [β-value for a 10-mmHg increase in SBP, men = −0.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) = −0.18 to −0.09; women = −0.07, 95% CI = −0.11 to −0.03] and fibrinogen [β-value for 1 SD increase in fibrinogen, men (1 SD: 0.85 g/L) = −0.12, 95% CI −0.20 to −0.03; women (1 SD: 0.80) = −0.11, 95% CI −0.20 to −0.02]. High alcohol consumption in men and high physical activity in women predicted an increase in eGFR. Higher albumin/creatinine ratio was associated with a decline in eGFR in men only.

Conclusions. Some risk factors for change in GFR seem to be gender specific but both high SBP and high levels of fibrinogen contribute to a more rapid decline in GFR for both men and women.

Keywords: cardiovascular risk factors; gender differences; general population; prospective study; renal function

Journal Article.  6254 words. 

Subjects: Nephrology

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