Journal Article

Statistical methods for the assessment of prognostic biomarkers(part II): calibration and re-classification

Giovanni Tripepi, Kitty J. Jager, Friedo W. Dekker and Carmine Zoccali

in Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation

Published on behalf of European Renal Association - European Dialysis and Transplant Assoc

Volume 25, issue 5, pages 1402-1405
Published in print May 2010 | ISSN: 0931-0509
Published online February 2010 | e-ISSN: 1460-2385 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ndt/gfq046
Statistical methods for the assessment of prognostic biomarkers(part II): calibration and re-classification

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Calibration is the ability of a prognostic model to correctly estimate the probability of a given event across the whole range of prognostic estimates (for example, 30% probability of death, 40% probability of myocardial infarction, etc.). The key difference between calibration and discrimination is that the latter reflects the ability of a given prognostic biomarker to distinguish a status (died/survived, event/non-event), while calibration measures how much the prognostic estimation of a predictive model matches the real outcome probability (that is, the observed proportion of the event). Re-classification is another measure of prognostic accuracy and it reflects how much a new prognostic biomarker increases the proportion of individuals correctly re-classified as having or not having a given event compared to a previous classification based on an existing prognostic biomarker or predictive model.

Keywords: calibration; discrimination; prognostic model; re-classification; risk prediction

Journal Article.  1715 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Nephrology

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