Parfitt-Collins model

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A method for predicting the ultimate market share for new consumer products using input data from consumer panels. The model requires actual market data, usually from a research panel, which includes: 1) cumulative brand penetration (the total number trying the brand, over time) and 2) repeat purchasing rates over time, from the time each buyer first bought the product. These form the basis for predictions of future market share. The simple formula is: Share = TxRxB where: T = projected percentage of those who use the product and will try out this product brand; R = projected percentage of those who have tried the product brand already, and who will repurchase the brand; and B = Buying-level index of repeat purchases of the new brand (compared with an index of 1.0 for the product class average).

Subjects: Marketing.

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