Article

Forecasting with Real-Time Data Vintages

Dean Croushore

in The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Published in print July 2011 | ISBN: 9780195398649
Published online September 2012 | | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195398649.013.0010

Series: Oxford Handbooks

 Forecasting with Real-Time Data Vintages

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  • Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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When researchers develop forecasting models, they usually pull down data on a variety of economic variables from a current database. But the potential drawback is that the researcher is using data which are not the same as the data that will face a forecaster in real time. This article discusses issues which arise once it is acknowledged that the values of economic variables taken from the latest available database will not be the same as the data which the forecaster or researcher would have faced in real time. It discusses data revisions and their impact on forecasts, and optimal forecasting when data revisions exist.

Keywords: economic forecasting; economic variables; data revisions; economic forecasts

Article.  8912 words. 

Subjects: Economics ; Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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