Article

Interpreting and Combining Heterogeneous Survey Forecasts

Charles F. Manski

in The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Published in print July 2011 | ISBN: 9780195398649
Published online September 2012 | | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195398649.013.0017

Series: Oxford Handbooks

Interpreting and Combining Heterogeneous Survey Forecasts

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  • Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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This article examines forecasts reported in surveys, expositing several logical issues that arise when interpreting and combining heterogeneous forecasts. Understanding these issues is a prerequisite for meaningful use of the data collected in existing surveys, and it may enable design of more informative surveys. The article is organized as follows. Section 2 considers the proper interpretation of point predictions of uncertain events. Section 3 explains the simple, but underappreciated, logical basis for a pervasive empirical finding on the performance of consensus forecasts of real-valued events, while Section 4 calls attention to the problem of assessing the temporal variation of forecasts made by panels of forecasters.

Keywords: economic forecasts; surveys; point predictions; uncertain events; consensus forecasts; real-valued events; temporal variation

Article.  6921 words. 

Subjects: Economics ; Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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