Article

Long-Horizon Growth Forecasting and Demography

Thomas Lindh

in The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Published in print July 2011 | ISBN: 9780195398649
Published online September 2012 | | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195398649.013.0022

Series: Oxford Handbooks

 Long-Horizon Growth Forecasting and Demography

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This article focuses on the forecasting of national GDP measures at long horizons, and argues that demography should be taken into account. It is organized as follows. Section 2 provides a brief discussion of some crucial theoretical issues for forecasting growth. Section 3 discusses the connection between demography and economic growth. Section 4 discusses alternative approaches and methods to make use of demographic–economic connections and the scope for combination forecasts in order to allow for long-run features. Section 5 summarizes the discussion.

Keywords: economic forecasting; GDP; demography; economic growth

Article.  9105 words. 

Subjects: Economics ; Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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