Article

Election Forecasting

Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien

in The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Published in print July 2011 | ISBN: 9780195398649
Published online September 2012 | | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195398649.013.0025

Series: Oxford Handbooks

 Election Forecasting

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  • Economics
  • Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
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This article, which reviews the nature of election forecasting, first defines forecasting as it applies to elections, and next looks at election forecasting history. Then, it examines the different approaches to election forecasting, focusing on statistical models. After presentation of a generic example of such a model specification, the article reviews template equations for more than one country, and shows that a political economic explanation is at the core of most equations. An issue that arises here concerns which economic predictor variables are preferred. This question receives thorough discussion, through explication of the UK case. Penultimately, the article discusses how to evaluate model quality, and concludes with the development of a leading example, that of forecasting US presidential elections.

Keywords: elections; statistical models; economic predictor; model quality; US presidential elections

Article.  7693 words. 

Subjects: Economics ; Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General ; Public Economics

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