Article

Scenario Thinking and Strategic Modelling

R. G. Coyle

in The Oxford Handbook of Strategy

Published in print April 2006 | ISBN: 9780199275212
Published online September 2009 | | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199275212.003.0011

Series: Oxford Handbooks in Business and Management C

 Scenario Thinking and Strategic Modelling

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This article aims to introduce the art and practice of thinking intelligently about the unknowable future. It is about forecasting what might happen in the future, but not about predicting what will happen. After explaining why forecasting is important in strategy it surveys different approaches to that task. Some of these are explained only in outline and most attention are given to the use of scenario thinking to generate more than one view of the future. Scenarios drive choices so the article also includes some tools and techniques for evaluating strategic choices against the future's anticipated possibilities. The article closes with some suggestions for further research and a summary of ‘the art of the long view’.

Keywords: strategic medelling; scenario thinking; forecasting; strategic choices; strategy evaluation; the long view

Article.  16398 words. 

Subjects: Business and Management ; Business Strategy ; Organizational Theory and Behaviour

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