Article

The Accuracy of Opinion Polling and its Relation to its Future

Michael Traugott

in The Oxford Handbook of American Public Opinion and the Media

Published in print May 2011 | ISBN: 9780199545636
Published online September 2011 | | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199545636.003.0020

Series: Oxford Handbooks of American Politics

 The Accuracy of Opinion Polling and its Relation to its Future

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This chapter discusses the concept of accuracy and how to measure it. It presents a chronology of the accuracy of the presidential pre-election polls during the 2008 election, and then studies the various ways to estimate election outcomes that do not include polls conducted by the analyst. The chapter also examines the impact of new technologies and evolving voting procedures on the accuracy of polls.

Keywords: accuracy; pre-election polls; election outcomes; voting procedures; new technologies

Article.  7535 words. 

Subjects: Politics ; US Politics ; Political Behaviour

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