Journal Article

Reformulation empirical macroeconomic modelling

D Hendry and G Mizon

in Oxford Review of Economic Policy

Published on behalf of The Oxford Review of Economic Policy Ltd

Volume 16, issue 4, pages 138-159
Published in print December 2000 | ISSN: 0266-903X
Published online December 2000 | e-ISSN: 1460-2121 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/16.4.138
Reformulation empirical macroeconomic modelling

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The policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systems depend on the formulations of their equations, the methodology of empirical model selection and evaluation, the techniques of policy analysis, and their forecast performance. Drawing on recent results in the theory of forecasting, we question the role of 'rational expectations'; criticize a common approach to testing economic theories; show that impulse-response methods of evaluating policy are seriously flawed; and question the mechanistic derivation of forecasts from econometric systems. In their place, we propose that expectations should be treated as instrumental to agents' decisions; discuss a powerful new approach to the empirical modelling of econometric relationships; offer viable alternatives to studying policy implications; and note modifications to forecasting devices that can enhance their robustness to unanticipated structural breaks.

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Subjects: Economic Development and Growth ; Public Economics ; Political Economy ; Public Policy

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