Journal Article

Demographic and labour-market impacts of migration on Poland

Paweł Kaczmarczyk and Marek Okólski

in Oxford Review of Economic Policy

Published on behalf of The Oxford Review of Economic Policy Ltd

Volume 24, issue 3, pages 599-624
Published in print January 2008 | ISSN: 0266-903X
Published online January 2008 | e-ISSN: 1460-2121 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grn029
Demographic and labour-market impacts of migration on Poland

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Post-2004 labour migration from Poland turned out to be one of the most spectacular migratory movements in contemporary European history. This outflow on a massive scale is surmised to impact on demographic, economic, and social phenomena both in Poland and in the receiving countries. The aim of this paper is to assess the demographic and labour-market impacts of the recent migration of Poles. We argue that selectivity patterns in the post-accession period differ significantly from those noted in the pre-accession phase. Recently, a stronger propensity to migrate is observed among young and relatively well-educated people who, at the same time, originate from economically backward areas characterized by limited employment opportunities. This observation is consistent with our assessment of the labour-market impacts of recent migration from Poland. From the analyses presented it follows that the short- and medium-term impacts of migration on the Polish labour market are moderate. However, as we argue, recent outflow might contribute significantly to a crowding-out of the economy in the long term.

Keywords: migration; EU enlargement; demographic impacts; labour-market impacts; F22; F24; J21; J24

Journal Article.  12593 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Economic Development and Growth ; Public Economics ; Political Economy ; Public Policy

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