Journal Article

Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders

Giancarlo Corsetti, Amil Dasgupta, Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin

in The Review of Economic Studies

Published on behalf of Review of Economic Studies Ltd

Volume 71, issue 1, pages 87-113
Published in print January 2004 | ISSN: 0034-6527
Published online January 2004 | e-ISSN: 1467-937X | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0034-6527.00277
Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders

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  • International Financial Markets
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Do large investors increase the vulnerability of a country to speculative attacks in the foreign exchange markets? To address this issue, we build a model of currency crises where a single large investor and a continuum of small investors independently decide whether to attack a currency based on their private information about fundamentals. Even abstracting from signalling, the presence of the large investor does make all other traders more aggressive in their selling. Relative to the case in which there is no large investor, small investors attack the currency when fundamentals are stronger. Yet, the difference can be small, or non-existent, depending on the relative precision of private information of the small and large investors. Adding signalling makes the influence of the large trader on small traders' behaviour much stronger.

Keywords: F31; G14; G15

Journal Article.  11754 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: International Financial Markets ; Economics ; International Finance

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