Journal Article

Optimal Electoral Timing: Exercise Wisely and You May Live Longer

Jussi Keppo, Lones Smith and Dmitry Davydov

in The Review of Economic Studies

Published on behalf of Review of Economic Studies Ltd

Volume 75, issue 2, pages 597-628
Published in print April 2008 | ISSN: 0034-6527
Published online April 2008 | e-ISSN: 1467-937X | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00493.x
Optimal Electoral Timing: Exercise Wisely and You May Live Longer

More Like This

Show all results sharing these subjects:

  • Economic History
  • Analysis of Collective Decision-making

GO

Show Summary Details

Preview

The timing of elections is flexible in many countries. We study this optimization by first creating a Bayesian learning model of a mean-reverting political support process. We then explore optimal electoral timing, modelling it as a renewable American option with interacting waiting and stopping values. Inter alia, we show that the expected longevity is a convex, then concave, function of the support. Finally, we calibrate our model to the post-1945 Labour-Tory U.K. rivalry. Our story quite well explains when the elections were called. We also show that election options approximately double the expected time in power in the current streak.

Keywords: D72; N44

Journal Article.  16396 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Economic History ; Analysis of Collective Decision-making

Full text: subscription required

How to subscribe Recommend to my Librarian

Users without a subscription are not able to see the full content. Please, subscribe or login to access all content.