Recurrence of youth unemployment: a longitudinal comparative approach

Isabelle Recotillet and Patrick Werquin

in Youth unemployment and social exclusion in Europe

Published by Policy Press

Published in print July 2003 | ISBN: 9781861343680
Published online March 2012 | e-ISBN: 9781447304388 | DOI:
Recurrence of youth unemployment: a longitudinal comparative approach

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This chapter investigates the probability of successive periods of youth unemployment in France, Germany and Sweden. Two sets of factors are included in the Poisson model: micro-level data such as age, gender and education, and macro-level data such as youth unemployment rate, adult unemployment rate and the proportion of long-term unemployed in the country. It is shown that the probability of leaving unemployment (hazard function) decreases with the number of spells of unemployment. In Germany, to experience several spells of unemployment is to face a longer cumulated duration of unemployment, as opposed to experiencing only one spell, for instance. The Swedish case is similar to the German case, but cumulated duration of unemployment is shorter. In France, to experience many spells of unemployment does not necessarily mean a longer cumulated duration of unemployment.

Keywords: youth unemployment; France; Germany; Sweden; Poisson model; age; gender; education

Chapter.  5955 words.  Illustrated.

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