Journal Article

An Astructural Analysis of National Forest Policy and Employment

Diana M. Burton

in American Journal of Agricultural Economics

Published on behalf of Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Volume 79, issue 3, pages 964-974
Published in print August 1997 | ISSN: 0002-9092
Published online August 1997 | e-ISSN: 1467-8276 | DOI:
An Astructural Analysis of National Forest Policy and Employment

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Linkages between sector-specific policy and sector employment are explored using a nonstationary Markov chain analysis. When parameterization of transition probabilities between employment sectors includes policy variables, hypothesis tests can determine policy impact relative to other variables. This astructural approach eliminates bias inherent in structural models. Application of this technique to Oregon's forestry sector and national forest policy demonstrates that macroeconomic forces have statistically important effects on employment while national forest policy, measured as timber sold or timber cut, does not. This result raises questions about forest policy impact analysis and assumptions inherent in national forest policy implementation.

Keywords: employment; forestry sector; national forest policy; nonstationary Markov chain; nonstructural models; policy impact analysis; Q230

Journal Article.  0 words. 

Subjects: Renewable Resources and Conservation

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