Journal Article

U.S. Trade Threats: Rhetoric or War?

Mylène Kherallah and John Beghin

in American Journal of Agricultural Economics

Published on behalf of Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Volume 80, issue 1, pages 15-29
Published in print February 1998 | ISSN: 0002-9092
Published online February 1998 | e-ISSN: 1467-8276 | DOI:
U.S. Trade Threats: Rhetoric or War?

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  • International Trade
  • Analysis of Collective Decision-making


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We present an empirical analysis of factors determining trade wars and agreements under U.S. trade law Section 301. A system of two probit equations is estimated using historical data on Section 301 cases to determine which economic and political factors increase the likelihood of trade frictions. The likelihood of trade war increases when the United States's export share in the world market declines, when the United States is less dependent on the market of the targeted country, when foreign policy makers are in an election year, and when negotiations relate to highly protected and unionized industries in the targeted country.

Keywords: probit estimation; Section 301; trade bargaining; U.S. trade policy; D740; F130

Journal Article.  0 words. 

Subjects: International Trade ; Analysis of Collective Decision-making

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